Stats Essay Example For Students

Stats Essay USING STATISTICAL EVALUATION FOR FUND PURCHASINGABSTRACTFund Purchasing Using StatisticsIn the past few years many young people transiting into adulthood have found themselves victim to improper or no teachings on how to handle money, or how to build some kind of future funds. This trend has effected most young people. When talking about stocks and mutual funds, many individuals do not realize that statistics can play a major part in the selection of an asset for the future. This study was to show that statistics can be used to compare mutual funds, to what you want for a return. The mutual funds looked at were only in six sectors of the market. TABLE OF CONTENTSABSTRACTLIST OF TABLES AND GRAPHSiiINTRODUCTION .1METHODS ..3RESULTS OF HOW STATISTICS CAN HELP BUILD FOR THE FUTURE ..4Importance of Saving For the Future ..4Process of Evaluation.4CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 13LIST OF TABLES AND GRAPHSTable A. Average, Range and Standard Deviation Comparison..4Table 1. Returns for Conse rvative fund one and two7Graph 1. Returns for Conservative fund one and two7Table 2. Returns for Secure fund one and two.. .8Graph 2. Returns for Secure fund one and two8Table 3. Returns for Moderate fund one and two9Graph 3. Returns for Moderate fund one and two9Table 4. Returns for Balanced fund one and two10Graph 4. Returns for Balanced fund one and two10Table 5. Returns for Ambitious fund one and two11Graph 5. Returns for Ambitious fund one and two11Table 6. Returns for Aggressive fund one and two12Graph 6. Returns for Aggressive fund one and two12INTRODUCTIONPotential purchases for building future wealth can be done with statistics. Individuals have many things to consider before they invest money, such as how much return they would like to have on a investment, how often they would like their money to double, and how much to invest. These factors help the individuals make an informed decision, about which investment would be best for them. This study was to compare the perform ance of two funds in six different sectors. Its main purpose was to look at how statistics can best be suited to do this. The six different sectors were selected; two funds were selected from each. Sectors:1. Conservative 19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998C110.412.818.415.03.08.211.38.013.27.310.7C210.914.024.215.92.58.713.710.217.98.011.62. Secure 19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998S118.210.223.718.97.812.023.04.421.28.08.2S216.39.327.819.10.512.815.31.427.92.713.13. Moderate 19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998M114.510.029.723.211.616.019.70.829.57.67.5M221.914.427.217.66.415.728.24.527.66.64.54. Balanced 19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998B129.29.224.717.32.321.822.81.420.87.77.5B221.58.923.213.27.812.724.82.325.69.211.95. Ambitious 19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998A136.26.332.411.82.914.722.93.538.610.815.8A227.32.633.514.73.415.132.8-6.124.113.825.26. Aggressive 19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998G123.77.633.425.85.513.328 .66.951.54.0-4.1G222.30.338.319.76.014.137.0-2.157.66.4-1.2METHODS The methods used were the average, range, and the standard deviation associated with each fund. Assuming that the distribution for each fund was normal, the z-tables were then used to calculate the percentage of time the return was above the designated return goal for each fund. We will write a custom essay on Stats specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now RESULTS OF HOW USING STATISTICS CAN HELP BUILD FOR THE FUTURE. Importance of Saving For the Future The importance of saving early, is that the extra time allows your assets to build before they are needed. An example of this is an investment of $16,000.00 before the age of 27 properly managed with a 15 % return yearly, could net an individual approximately $750,000.00 at the retirement age of 62 years old.Whereas a 40 year old individual saving $2,000.00 a year properly managed with a 15 % return until the age of 62, will net approximately $500,000.00. Approximately 65 % of all retired persons retire with an annual income of less than $20,000.00 (Money 1997). This is one good reason for starting at an early age and to be able to enjoy your retirement. With inflation at approximately 3 % a year and increasing the dollar will be worth less tomorrow than today. Process of EvaluationTo find funds with high gains or losses, determine the average, range and standard deviation of each fund. The results are in the following Table: Table 1. Average and S tandard Deviation Comparison AVG%STDRangeS P16.1511.3834.80CMI14.288.2927.60C110.754.1615.40 C212.505.7021.70S114.156.9719.30S213.309.5027.40M115.438.8028.90M212.5021.7023.70B114.979.2027.80B214.647.5023.30A117.8012.3035.70A216.9412.4039.60G117.8315.5055.60G218.0318.4059.70A person wanting a 15 % annual return would take into consideration what funds averaged 15 % and over. The average will not guarantee that you will make the 15 % every year, it is only reflects how well you will do in the good and the bad years combined. The return for the S P over the same time period was an average of 16.15 % with a range of 34.8 and a STD of 11.38. The Capitol Market Index was an average of 14.28 % with a range of 27.6 and a STD of 8.29. By removing any funds with an average that fell below the Standards Poor’s, and Capitol Market Index, this would narrow it down to funds that didas well as the market or better. The funds that fit this requirement are M1, A1, A2, B1, G1, and G2. We no w would want to look at the range and STD. Data varies dramatically, one range almost 60 points. In this data set the riskier funds have a greater range of values, since the ranges may have been caused by an isolated year that was good or bad. By removing any funds with a high range and standard deviation we can narrow the selection down to M1, A1, and A2. By reading the prospectus for these funds, will help to narrow it down even further. The Z tables can now be used, but it must first be calculated. The equation to use for calculating the Z is:Xi X / STD = Z By calculating the Z, and assuming a normal distribution, the Z tables are used to find the percentage of time the funds fell below 15 %. The following calculations are for the remaining funds:M1:15–15.43 / 8.8 = Z = -.05Table percentage is 48.01% A1:15-17.80 / 12.3 = Z = -.31Table percentage is 37.83 %A2:15-16.94. / 12.4 = Z = -.24Table percentage is 40.52 %The given calculations show that the return on the selected f unds, returned less than 15 % at least 37.83 % of the time.Data Calculations ResultsTable 1. Returns for Conservative fund one and two 19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998C110.412.818.415.03.08.211.38.013.27.310.7C210.914.024.215.92.58.713.710.217.98.011.6AVGSTDRANGEC110.754.1615.40C212.505.7021.70Graph 1. Returns for Conservative fund one and twoTable 2. Returns for Secure fund one and two19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998S118.210.223.718.97.812.023.04.421.28.08.2S216.39.327.819.10.512.815.31.427.92.713.1AVGSTDRANGES114.156.9719.30S213.309.5027.40Graph 2. Returns for Secure fund one and twoTable 3. Returns for Moderate fund one and two19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998M114.510.029.723.211.616.019.70.829.57.67.5M221.914.427.217.66.415.728.24.527.66.64.5AVGSTDRANGEM115.438.8728.90M212.5021.7023.70Graph 3. Returns for Moderate fund one and twoTable 4. Returns for Balanced fund one and two19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998B129.29.224.717.32.321.822 .81.420.87.77.5B221.58.923.213.27.812.724.82.325.69.211.9AVGSTDRANGEB114.979.2027.80B214.647.5023.30Graph 4. Returns for Balanced fund one and twoTable 5. Returns for Ambitious fund one and two19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998A136.26.332.411.82.914.722.93.538.610.815.8A227.32.633.514.73.415.132.8-6.124.113.825.2AVGSTDRANGEA117.8012.3035.70A216.9412.4039.60Graph 5. Returns for Ambitious fund one and twoTable 6. Returns for Aggressive fund one and two19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998G123.77.633.425.85.513.328.66.951.54.0-4.1G222.30.338.319.76.014.137.0-2.157.66.4-1.2AVGSTDRANGEG117.8315.555.6G218.0318.459.7Graph 6. Returns for Aggressive fund one and twoCONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONSThe percentages from the calculations show that of the funds selected, only three from the original 12 would meet the requirement of 15 % percent a year. It also showed that they would fail to meet the expected return, at least 37.83% of the time sometimes more. The overall return sh ould be up to the individual and to ensure continual growth of a portfolio, a person should meet the expected return at least 80 % of the time. By evaluating each fund using some of these methods will help a person make an informed decision. The use of statistics can help evaluate overall performance of funds. This in turn will help you make more informed decisions with your investments, to build the future that you want. Always remember to pay yourself something first, and control your money, don’t let your money control you.